Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 3.384152 4.071046 4.839421 5.759341 6.827259 8.024329 9.463964
2025-03-30 2.290274 3.126863 4.165058 5.534774 7.279302 9.410638 12.193117
2025-04-06 1.708077 2.600841 3.810624 5.539807 7.912365 11.013245 15.324289
2025-04-13 1.308330 2.197876 3.501099 5.497706 8.415603 12.449021 18.351994
2025-04-20 1.111106 2.030988 3.470737 5.807396 9.402515 14.600461 22.522941
2025-04-27 0.938494 1.857283 3.386372 6.002126 10.217033 16.558624 26.574000
2025-05-04 0.820494 1.745893 3.373692 6.291558 11.187459 18.811742 31.225010
2025-05-11 0.678184 1.555957 3.190296 6.261675 11.627515 20.272380 34.772210
2025-05-18 0.539557 1.338809 2.916472 6.026636 11.683854 21.109136 37.384829
2025-05-25 0.423899 1.139259 2.636787 5.732282 11.589264 21.669132 39.567522
2025-06-01 0.356595 1.029269 2.512404 5.707254 11.960633 23.023974 43.136728
2025-06-08 0.306290 0.946428 2.428648 5.746667 12.447268 24.604680 47.183666
2025-06-15 0.258576 0.859186 2.323470 5.735042 12.849669 26.094786 51.232137
2025-06-22 0.204538 0.738714 2.119346 5.482953 12.751118 26.668612 53.710709
2025-06-29 0.173295 0.673589 2.034001 5.477827 13.146965 28.184324 57.982157
2025-07-06 0.145408 0.609466 1.937976 5.432543 13.450500 29.542184 62.047237
2025-07-13 0.135547 0.601425 1.987360 5.737712 14.532628 32.484966 69.255392
2025-07-20 0.122479 0.578101 1.990629 5.929923 15.383609 35.026707 75.848216
2025-07-27 0.113789 0.568060 2.029552 6.216157 16.470174 38.111283 83.658992
2025-08-03 0.097033 0.520819 1.950308 6.186520 16.830819 39.737272 88.713580
2025-08-10 0.078024 0.456070 1.803254 5.953913 16.690723 40.309330 91.708809
2025-08-17 0.061275 0.392699 1.644688 5.662644 16.374447 40.477258 93.888785
2025-08-24 0.052250 0.361071 1.583879 5.637877 16.706304 42.057459 99.034551